Focusing on what hes better at: Scherzer is just 19 strikeouts away from 3,000 and should reach the milestone this month, surpassing the likes of Juan Marichal, Roy Halladay, and Bob Feller on the JAWS leaderboard. 5th stage: 60-day IL. Its available on your preferred podcast platform. This will undoubtedly hurt Wainwright's bid for the Hall of Fame. Zack Greinke has had an interesting career. The starting pitcher, who will enter his 19th season with the Cards, was drafted by the Atlanta Braves. But over the last three seasons, Jack has pitched only 154 innings. Flaherty insists hes feeling great this spring. His 133 OPS+ is a step down from his 201218 prime (146), but his .493 SLG is his best since leaving Arizona. The greatest lineups ever? Upon losing in the Wild Card round, the franchise's attention shifted to the offseason and what will happen to some of their aging players. And while deGromcontinued to blast 100-mph fastball after 100-mph fastball past hitterseven while missing turns here and there due to what were believed (by the Mets, at least) to be minor and disconnected injuries, he finally landed on the IL in early July with forearm inflammation. He went 17-7 with 174 strikeouts and a 3.05 ERA in 32 starts spanning 206 1/3 innings the third-highest total in the majors. But Wainwright proved his solid 2020 wasnt a brief mirage. Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window), Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window), Click to share on Flipboard (Opens in new window), Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window), Click to email a link to a friend (Opens in new window). You may have created an account with another Rogers Media account that can be used to sign in here. Adam Wainwright is going to have such an interesting Hall of Fame case once he retires. This may not seem particularly grandiose, and probably not even close to Cooperstown worthiness, but it should be noted that with sixty-five elected, starting pitcher is far and away the most commonly enshrined position in the Hall (it has also, pre-bullpen expansion, been the most common position, so this shouldnt be too surprising). Listen to the Seeing Red podcast on the Cardinals, featuring Will Leitch and Miklasz. Interestingly enough, he missed the entire 2011 season for the world champion St. Louis Cardinals, but he did play an integral role as a closer in the 2006 playoffs, throwing 9.2 scoreless innings in the playoffs. Ad Choices Only Price (2018) and Bumgarner (2019) have pitched enough to qualify for an ERA title once since the 2017 season. This is the first time since 2010 that all three are in . Hell get some work in between now and then, and hopefully that will get him on track. Adam Wainwright K's McCormick. This doesnt mean that Wainwright definitely deserves to make itTim Hudson, who barely qualified for a second turn on the BBWAA ballot and didnt receive the 5% of votes needed to qualify for a third, ranks ahead of him, for instance. Were not sure if hell be ready by Opening Day, but at this point our priority is to take care of this now so we can have him available for virtually the entire season. He'll retire with honors and accolades, becoming a fine coach and St. Louis area legend. . For this exercise, Im focused mainly on mid- or late-career players rather than early-career ones. Between that, his three Cy Youngs, and eight All-Star appearances, hes probably punched his ticket even before getting to 200 wins (hes at 187). While Drew was a fine player throughout his career, he would only spend the 2004 season with the Braves. By checking this box, I agree to the terms of service and privacy policy of Rogers Media. But even if we throw 2020 out, Flaherty averaged only 57 innings of work over the last two years. So basically what Im saying is that if Adam Wainwright has a once-every-seventy-five-years season, he should probably make it into Cooperstown. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Adam Wainwright, however, is a little bit trickier. Hes made two starts this spring, covering five total innings. Your email address will not be published. A two-homer, two-walk game on Wednesday added half a win to whats now his seventh-best season (4.5 WAR); with a big finish, he can approach the peak standard (42.7 WAR). A similarly impressive 2022 and perhaps 2023, though upon signing a one-year extension with the Cardinals last week, Wainwright strongly hinted he would retire alongside longtime batterymate Yadier Molina following next season added to his 2017-14 peak would nudge him ever closer to a Cooperstown-worthy body of work and at the least underline the kind of company hes already keeping. 141-80, 3.23 ERA, 1,547 strikeouts, 124 adjusted ERA. Wainwright went 41-28 with a 4.58 ERA (an ERA+ of 90, or 10 percent below league average) from 2016 through 2019. Even if he does that, hes well short of the JAWS standard or even the 55.7 career WAR of David Ortiz, plus he has the stigma of his 2013 PED suspension to overcome. Velocity? When Wainwright has pitched, hes been traditionally one of the better pitchers in the league, having won 20 games twice, 19 games on two other occasions, and led the league twice. Not an injury issue? While wins arent everything, Ive chosen to list them chronologically by career win total as a benchmark of evaluation. No harm. His contract (seven years, $175 million) ensures he will pitch in Seattle at least through 2019, but his velocity numbers and declining ERA suggest his career may be on the downside. I wouldnt expect Wainwright to be at his best at this stage. 4th stage: The latest MRI showed something that was a little off, and we think its smart to do more tests and let him go get a second opinion. Hey, at least the Cardinals added a proven, quality big-league starting pitcher this past offseason. That includes 2020, a season shortened by the pandemic. Godspeed, Waino. I highly doubt it. Only Clemens, Johnson, Carlton and Greg Maddux are the only pitchers who have won more. Adam Wainwright Future Hall of Fame Candidates: N.L. He went 119-66 with a 2.96 ERA from 2007-15, a span in which only Kershaw had a lower ERA among pitchers with at least 1,000 innings pitched. When Adam Wainwright decides to hang up his cleats, the St.. Just want to take care of some minor inflammation after he ramped up his throwing and pitch counts. The performance was unsurprisingly unsustainable. Kimbrel has an option for next year, which I think is likely to be exercised, so he wont be a free agent until 2023. Rolen, a member of the Cardinals Hall of Fame, was welcomed to the 'family' of Hall of Famers during an event and press conference Feb. 28, 2023 in Cooperstown, N.Y. After posting a 3.84 expected ERA in 2022, that metric jumped to 4.53 last season. And hes no slouch in the regular season Bumgarner is a four-time All-Star with a sub-3.00 career ERA, a high career strikeout rate, and hes even connected for 16 home runs at the plate. Sales efficiency numbers are superb he has a 2.99 career ERA, a 1.054 WHIP, a 4.96 K:BB ratio, and hes working on five straight All-Star trips. Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. Adam Wainwright. Adam Wainwright, is probably not a Hall of Famer and his 36.7 JAWS likely shouldn't be used as the new . But theres a rhythm to the ritual. At age 33, hes signed for another four years after this campaign, so he should have sufficient time to make a run at 3,000 strikeouts and another Cy Young award. But the guys that have got in recently just have been the best at the craft for a decade, Wainwright said. In fairness, the Cardinals are correct in their initial thinking. 132-72, 3.34 ERA, 2,005 strikeouts, 124 adjusted ERA. All Wins Above Replacement and Wins Above Average data comes . None. Hes certainly on pace for the Hall, but a lot of it will depend on how he can rebound following his off-the-field motorcycle accident. By what Ill provisionally call R(eliever)-JAWS, hes climbed from 22nd all-time to 15th, which is still well below the standard for the eight enshrined relievers (29.7). Of the four active starters who are within hailing distance of the JAWS standard (61.1), none has done more to help himself in 2021 than Scherzer, who has been stellar in his age-36 season, pitching to a 2.40 ERA and 3.12 FIP in 146 innings for the Nationals and Dodgers. Five years ago, Max Scherzer had no Hall of Fame case. We always prefer to go the surgery route as the last possible resort. There is a trio of starting pitchers not yet Hall-eligible who rank somewhere between Gooden and WainwrightFlix Hernndez, Cole Hamels, and Chris Sale. I like that its a round number, but I assure you that this is merely a coincidence. With a big age-28 season (5.2 WAR and counting) driven by his 31 homers, 138 OPS+, and 9 DRS, Ramirez is making notable progress toward Cooperstown, particularly given that hes already banked two seven-win seasons. Cy Young awards, no-hitters, and ERA titles may be better methods for evaluating the 21st century pitcher than the sheer outdated statistic of wins.. Injuries have plagued Adam Wainwright more than the other pitchers on this list; hes going to be 36 in a few months and hes logged just 1,800 innings due to Tommy John surgery (2011) and an Achilles tendon rupture (2015). In his final inning, Wainwright didnt touch higher than 85 mph. Those skills may eventually result in a spot in the Hall of Fame. 1st stage: All good. But is it a Hall of Fame caliber career? Price (155 wins) is the only active pitcher within 30 wins of Wainwright, with Cueto (135) and Bumgarner (127) much further behind. Adam Wainwright is the greatest St. Louis Cardinals pitcher since Bob Gibson, and arguably the greatest St. Louis Cardinals pitcher in history other than Bob Gibson. Poll : Should Adam Wainwright be in the Hall of Fame? Heres what Bowden wrote: Mozeliak was cautious in his comments and reminded me that the right-hander threw only 36 innings last year. Wins may not matter as much these days, but his 195 wins would make him just the seventh player to be inducted as a starting pitcher with fewer than 200 victories. ago. Eleven of the sixty-five are below Wainwright in terms of Hybrid JAWS. Assuming he pitches in 2022, a year in which I am assuming Major League Baseball will indeed be played, which he has already announced will be his last, Wainwrights first round of Hall of Fame votes would not even be revealed until 2028. The 40-year . All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Flahertys exhibition-season debut was supposed to happen Saturday, but now the assignment has been switched to Sunday. I think Hall of Fame credentials might change a bit, Wainwright said. Well have to wait and see. However, not all stories have happy endings. He threw two no-hitters in the same season and tied the major league record with 20 strikeouts in a nine-inning game. He answers the tough question on if his legacy is enough to get him into the MLB Hall of Fame alongside the all-time greats.Follow all our social media channels for more content!https://twitter.com/FoulTerritoryTVhttps://www.instagram.com/foulterritoryshow/https://www.tiktok.com/@foulterritoryshowhttps://www.facebook.com/FoulTerritoryShowhttps://www.twitch.tv/foulterritoryshow Hes actually been tougher to hit than in any season since 2016, but his 14% walk rate has created more traffic than ever, and hes blown five of 35 save chances, though three of those were in consecutive outings in mid-July, accounting for seven of the 16 earned runs hes allowed. Despite dealing with shoulder soreness and some rough stretches, Greinke the active leader in JAWS has pitched an AL-high 159.2 innings, though he will probably get overtaken after landing on the COVID-19 IL on Tuesday. Wainwright has certainly had a long and successful career, but has it been enough to warrant enshirement in the Hall of Fame? Dont hold your breath. May need surgery, but were not close to making any kind of decision on that. Queried about his Cooperstown credentials during the Cardinals' visit to Citi Field last month, Wainwright grinned while seemingly acknowledging his counting numbers he has 184 wins and 2,004. Me talking about it is going to inflame some people Hes not a Hall of Famer! Wainwright said. There are some people that feel Wainwright will join his legendary teammates in Cooperstown at some point in time, a trio of Hall of Famers all departing the Cardinals at the same time. Adam Wainwright (44.0 career | 35.5 Peak | 39.8 JAWS, +2.1 JAWS). They cited various ailments that impacted Wainos performance. By Hybrid JAWS, Adam Wainwright is, currently, the 118th greatest starting pitcher in Major League Baseball history. Your existing password has not been changed. Im far less convinced he deserves that, but using FanGraphs framing-inclusive WAR for catchers (supplemented by Baseball Prospectus pre-2008 framing data), its clear that he deserves a boost beyond off-the-shelf JAWS. If he misses the first week or so, no big deal. Can Adam Wainwright join St. Louis Cardinals teammates in Hall of Fame? Theyll defer. Still, just one top-10 Cy Young award finish wont get him in the Hall of Fame. 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Wainwright is absolutely not going to make it to Cooperstown, and the numbers say he shouldn't, but you can squint and you can cherry-pick statistics to make an argument for Wainwright if you enter with an agenda. I want to confine my results to the integration era, as, while this whole exercise is based on some level of silliness, I dont think asking Adam Wainwright to win 40 games and pitch 400 innings is particularly fair. Paul Goldschmidt, first base (49.1 career | 40.6 Peak | 44.9 JAWS, +2.2 JAWS). Rile people up.. It is possible that he ends up as one of those players who hangs around the ballot for his decade of eligibility, getting a boost because of his time in St. Loius, but the only way he ends up in Cooperstown will be with a ticket. Your favorite teams, topics, and players all on your favorite mobile devices. Required fields are marked *. Wainwright is a Hall of Fame person, and a very good pitcher. An error has occurred while trying to update your details. All advice, including picks and predictions, is based on individual commentators opinions and not that of Minute Media or its related brands. Cardinals' Wainwright reaches 2,000 career K's. Even in the he falls short but not short enough to not make it hypothetical, the easiest path is likely for Adam Wainwright to post 8.1 WAR under both methods. Decade-plus Eagles writer. During the 2022 regular season, 'Waino' finished with a record of 11-12 and 3.71 ERA in 191.2 innings, while also racking up 143 strikeouts. Adam Wainwright never won a Cy Young Award. Maybe he has it in him to stick around for another 20 wins to get to 200, but he might not even crack the top 100 in JAWS while doing so. Im skeptical only because of the history of how the Cardinals do this when a pitcher doesnt pitch, or takes a delay before his next assignment. Via his 10 All-Star selections, nine Gold Gloves, two World Series rings, and reputation for handling pitching staffs, Molinas already been anointed presumptive first-ballot honoree status. Hes racked up four seasons worth 67 WAR, plus a fifth at 5.7 and a sixth at 4.9; to improve that peak score substantially, he needs big seasons. 1:09 | September 14, 2022 St. Louis Cardinals analyst Brad Thompson joins Blair and Barker to talk about whether Adam Wainwright deserves a nod into the Baseball Hall of Fame, stating you. Wainwright threw his sinker, cutter and curveball the most, and the velocity on all three pitches measured a significant drop-off from last season. Saturday marked the end of an era for the St. Louis Cardinals. His 2.2 WAR, meanwhile, edged him closer to the career standard (73.3). Greinke was dominant for the 2009 Kansas City Royals, winning the league ERA crown (2.16) and leading the AL in WHIP (1.073), and even better for the 2015 Los Angeles Dodgers, posting a ridiculous 1.66 ERA and at one point throwing 43.2 consecutive scoreless innings over six starts. On one hand, its spring training and a lot of pitchers get pounded early in exhibition games as they prepare for the run-up to the regular season. Injuries have me dubious that Chris Sale will ever accumulate the WAR necessary to reach the Cooperstown threshold, but hes only barely going to be 33 come Opening Day, so Im not closing the book just yet. But if it wasn't for . Hes undergone Tommy John surgery, and his career total of 76 wins is underwhelming. But I just want to know how far back I would have to dig to find an age-40 season in which a pitcher was good enough to get Adam Wainwright to this level of Hall of Fame worthiness. This year, however, the biggest stars of Opening Day will be three players in Cardinals jerseys who all have legitimate shots of someday being in baseball's Hall of Fame themselves. David Price is older than he seems; hes already 32 in a few months with just 122 career wins. He leads MLB in complete games this season at the age of 40, and is MLB's active leader in complete games with 27. Astros @ Cardinals. Yadier Molinas career FanGraphs WAR shot up 18.4 wins in one day, The 2022 St. Louis Cardinals and the next generational passage St. Louis Bullpen. It goes something like this . He surpassed 200 wins in 2019 (hes at 219 now), but with his strikeout rate dipping from 24.5% last year to 17.0% this year, hes still 201 strikeouts away from 3,000 and will probably need two seasons to reach the milestone instead of one. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. He was the first pitcher aged 39 or older since Mike Mussina in 2008 to throw at least 200 innings with an ERA+ of 125 or better. His draft stock suggests he has the ability to be a top-tier pitcher, but as of now, hes not on a Cooperstown track. All rights reserved. Enter your email address to get a new one. . Hes produced 5.0 WAR with his pitching but -0.6 WAR with his hitting with a remarkable .000/.000/.000 line taking this no-hitter thing a bit too literally through 50 PA; on Wednesday night, he surpassed Wei-Yin Chens record for season-opening futility, set in 2016. Likewise, his 42.4 bWAR is lower than the likes of Javier Vazquez, Al Leiter, and Frank Viola. 230-143, 3.70 ERA, 2,788 strikeouts, 117 adjusted ERA. Prices highlights include a 2012 Cy Young award, two ERA titles, and five 200-strikeout seasons. Adam Wainwright joined Hall of Famer Bob Gibson as the only St. Louis Cardinals pitchers with 2,000 strikeouts, fanning Milwaukee's Luis Uras in the fourth inning Thursday. Your email address will not be published. MLB starting pitcher who won a World Series Championship with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2006 and was a member of the Cardinals . If this is the end, Wainwright is leaving behind a solid career. When the Washington Nationals took Stephen Strasburg first overall in the 2009 draft, he was one of the most hyped prospects in the games history. Terms of Service. He was merely a good pitcher on the Detroit Tigers, vastly overshadowed by teammate Justin Verlander. Look at that. To be clear, Adam Wainwright will certainly make it onto the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot, and based on the ease with which even seemingly fringe candidates are able to garner them, will probably get some votes. While a Cy Young Award does not guarantee entry, it certainly helps. Replacing those lost or disrupted seasons with three average Wainwright seasons a 13-7 mark with 138 strikeouts over 164 innings would have Wainwright at 223-126 with 2,418 strikeouts. Hes got a long ways to go to reach 200 wins (he has 112), but hes already at 2,031 strikeouts. 156-111, 3.18 ERA, 2,286 strikeouts, 126 adjusted ERA. This adds up to a solid career, and one that would be worthy of the Hall of Very Good, but not the Hall of Fame. His cutter was next, dropping from his 2022 average of 84.3 mph to 80.8 mph, and his curveball decreased from 72.9 mph to 70.2 mph.. Pujols, Wainwright and Molina were each given an introduction and trotted out to the diamond to be greeted by 16 Cardinals Hall of Famers. It hasnt moved him very far in the JAWS rankings, but hes nonetheless seventh among active pitchers behind Greinke, the injured Justin Verlander (60.8), Kershaw, Scherzer, and two other pitchers whove effectively taken zeroes in 2020 and 21, Cole Hamels (48.4) and Flix Hernndez (44.3). But Adam Wainwrights story also isnt complete. Yadier Molina, though certainly less overwhelming of a candidate than Pujols, is probably going to make it inparticularly with the modern embrace of pitch framing, Molinas defensive reputation has only improved, and his high longevity and peak scores by FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement (which, unlike Baseball Reference, incorporates framing), are well within the normal catcher standards for Cooperstown, even if the rank-and-file voter bestows his candidacy with fewer goat emojis and general fawning than St. Louis does. Seconds later, told his numbers stack up well to wild card-era pitchers who are either already enshrined or have solid Hall of Fame cases, the famously good-natured Wainwright a night removed from saying he struck out Jeff McNeil looking to leave the bases loaded because I like nostalgia and he wanted to give Mets fans what they want grinned again. It is possible that the same will be the case for a third Cardinals legend. The two-time NL Cy Young winner began his season by reeling off one of the most amazing runs of any pitcher in recent memory, posting an 0.50 ERA and 0.87 FIP through his first 12 starts. Because he didnt debut until about five weeks before his 26th birthday, hes short in the two traditional stat categories, wins (77) and strikeouts (1,505), that tend to matter to voters, but as Ive argued, particularly if he can nab a third Cy Young, his will be something of a Koufaxian candidacy, where his career totals will matter less than the peak dominance. Actually, its two starting pitchers: Jack Flaherty and Adam Wainwright. 122-66, 3.24 ERA, 1,621 strikeouts, 123 adjusted ERA. Theres a good chance no pitcher will again crack the 300-win plateau, a mark that has been achieved 24 times throughout the sports history. However, the future Cardinals Hall of Famer is coming off a 2022 season in which he lost velocity, suffered a decline in swing . Once Molina has been. (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images), Wainwright strongly hinted he would retire alongside longtime batterymate Yadier Molina following next season. His sinker averaged 84.9 mph, a 3.7 percent decrease from 2022. Clayton Kershaw is this generations Sandy Koufax; he could retire right now and hed make the Hall of Fame on the first ballot. Annual promotional dates for the Purina Pooches in the Ballpark game and Edward Jones Cardinals Hall of Fame Weekend are scheduled for April 30 and August 26-28, respectively. He had a 4.99 ERA in his last 11 starts in 2022 including a 7.22 ERA in his final six starts. The Hall of Stats was built by Adam Darowski, Jeffrey Chupp, and Michael Berkowitz.Follow the Hall of Stats on Twitter or Facebook.The Hall of Stats is open sourced on GitHub.All data is also open and available as a free download. Bernie has hosted radio shows in St. Louis, Dallas, Baltimore and Washington D.C. Bernie, his wife Kirsten and their cats reside in the Skinker-DeBaliviere neighborhood of St. Louis. An Alternate Hall of Fame populated by a mathematical formula. Wainwright did not factor into the decision, allowing five runs on four hits in four innings. Reports on Wednesday, October 26th, say that Wainwright will return to the Cardinals for his 19th MLB season with the club, as he continues to chase his 200th career win. Look at that. Strasburg hasnt been a disappointment, but he also hasnt lit the world on fire. But the Cardinals and the pitcher Cardinals changed the schedule for his first start; Flaherty threw on the backfields instead. Enter your email below and we'll send you another email. I am a big fan, not as a universal absolute but as a general guideline, of the Jay Jaffe JAWS system, a thing I have mentioned repeatedly in my writing, though I also prefer to use a hybrid model which incorporates a players career performance and his seven best individual seasons (his peak) as measured not only by Baseball Reference but by FanGraphs (in most non-catcher cases, over the course of a career, this doesnt make a huge difference, but in the most discussed cases, the margins are so thin that I am happy to look at as much data as possible). If hes still got the stuff and durability to get to 3,000, the rest of the numbers might fall into place. His 2011 season, in which he went 24-5 with a 2.40 ERA and led the league in a slew of categories wins, ERA, games started, innings pitched, strikeouts, WHIP, adjusted ERA, and hits allowed per nine innings earned him a distinction that hadnt been accomplished since Roger Clemens in 1986. Wainwright, however, has a much more finite timetablehe has announced that he is retiring. The 40-year-old right-hander became the ninth active pitcher with 2,000. His velocity has dropped again, though Wainwright did push it up a little in his second start. by Handedness, Seven Pitchers (and Some More Position Players) Who Have Most Helped Their Hall of Fame Cases in 2021. Sabathia has largely been a disappointment since signing a nine-figure extension with the team, and he likely wont be retained when his contract expires after this season. He was the MVP of the 2014 World Series after two dominant starts and then five scoreless innings off the bench in Game 7, and hes been a key contributor to three championship teams.